TY - JOUR
T1 - Vulcanian explosive cycles
T2 - Patterns and predictability
AU - Watt, S.F.L.
AU - Mather, T.A.
AU - Pyle, D.M.
PY - 2007/9/1
Y1 - 2007/9/1
N2 - Repetitive and violent Vulcanian explosion sequences are common hazards at many volcanoes. Statistical analyses of such sequences form the basis of forecasting models and reveal underlying explosive processes. However, no single statistical model describes interexplosion repose intervals in Vulcanian systems. Soufrière Hills, Montserrat, is best described by a log-logistic model, while Sakurajima, Japan, shows a transition from a log-logistic to a Weibull model as activity intensifies. Anak Krakatau, Indonesia, displays two failure modes on different time scales, both described by Weibull distributions. At the Kameni Islands, Santorini, Greece, model-fitting parameters vary between eruption cycles. Rates of magma rise and pressurization may be the most important controls in determining the statistical distribution of repose intervals in Vulcanian systems.
AB - Repetitive and violent Vulcanian explosion sequences are common hazards at many volcanoes. Statistical analyses of such sequences form the basis of forecasting models and reveal underlying explosive processes. However, no single statistical model describes interexplosion repose intervals in Vulcanian systems. Soufrière Hills, Montserrat, is best described by a log-logistic model, while Sakurajima, Japan, shows a transition from a log-logistic to a Weibull model as activity intensifies. Anak Krakatau, Indonesia, displays two failure modes on different time scales, both described by Weibull distributions. At the Kameni Islands, Santorini, Greece, model-fitting parameters vary between eruption cycles. Rates of magma rise and pressurization may be the most important controls in determining the statistical distribution of repose intervals in Vulcanian systems.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-34548749862&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1130/G23562A.1
DO - 10.1130/G23562A.1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:34548749862
SN - 0091-7613
VL - 35
SP - 839
EP - 842
JO - Geology
JF - Geology
IS - 9
ER -