Unveiling nitrate contamination and health risks: Insights from groundwater quality assessment and Monte Carlo simulation along the Southern Caspian Sea Coasts

Groundwater resources are at great risk of contamination due to increased industrial and agricultural activities, population growth and urban expansion. This study investigated factors controlling spatio-temporal variability in groundwater quality and nitrate concentration at the southern coast of Caspian Sea, Iran to provide public health risk assessment. Na-Cl (44.8%) and Ca-HCO₃ (58.6%) types water were the dominant hydrogeochemical facies in dry and wet seasons, respectively. Most of the examined groundwater samples were found unfit for drinking but appropriate for agricultural irrigation. The chemistry of groundwater predominantly influenced by combination of local lithology and ion exchange in aquifer as well as seawater intrsuin. Nitrate concentration varied from 0.05 to 200 mg/L with a mean value of 33.1 mg/L in which 13.7% and 27.5% of samples showed concentration higher than WHO's recommended value in dry and wet seasons, respectively. The highest nitrate concentrations were observed at locations in proximity to human settlements including cities, villages as well as agricultural lands. The identified pollution hotspots confirm nitrate contributions from un-treated wastewater effluents and agricultural practices with minimum contribution from industrial activities. The result of Monte Carlo simulation revealed that children were at highest risk from drinking of groundwater containing nitrate. This study highlights the urgent need for action to address the growing threat to groundwater quality and public health posed by contamination from various sources in the southern coasts of Caspian Sea.