Trends in COVID-19 lethality and mortality rates in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil: a time series analysis from April 2020 to June 2021

Matheus Paiva Emidio Cavalcantia*, Eduardo Siqueira, Tassiane Cristina Moraes, Blanca Guerrero, Isabella Batista Martins Portugal, Renata Martins Macedo Pimentel, Henrique Moraes Ramos da Silva, Lucas Cauê Jacintho, Khalifa Elmusharaf, Luiz Carlos de Abreua

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)
18 Downloads (Pure)


Introduction: continual mutations of the sars-cov-2 virus, with the possibility of reinfection or reactivation of the virus, can lead to a further spread of the virus and consequently new infection periods. The state of Pernambuco, Brazil, has faced many adversities amidst the pandemic, requiring studies and new spatiotemporal techniques to understand the pandemic development and planning actions to reverse the current situation.

Objective: the aim was to evaluate the mortality and lethality trends of Covid-19 from April 2020 to June 2021 in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, with the division into two periods according to the waves of infection to date (1st period and 2nd period).

Methods: an ecological time-series study was carried out with population data from the Pernambuco state health department. We collected the number of confirmed cases and deaths for Covid-19. The trends were analyzed according to the Prais-Winsten regression model in two moments from march 2020 to September 2020 and the second from October 2021 to June 2022. Differences were considered significant when p<0.05.

Results: the state of Pernambuco had 581,594 confirmed cases of Covid-19, where 51,370 were severe cases, and 530,224 were mild cases, in addition to 18,444 deaths. Given the trends analyzed, mortality was increasing in the second period (April/2020 to June/2021), while lethality decreased in the first period and was stationary in the second period.

Conclusion: this study found an increasing trend in mortality of Covid-19 in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil in the second period, highlighting an urgent need to develop surveillance measures as well as public policies for vulnerable populations, in addition to continuing preventive measures.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)327-338
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Human Growth and Development
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 26 Jun 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
I thank everyone who participated in my journey, from the beginning of enrollment to my development through all modules until this final work. Thanks to all the professors and support given to me by the University of Limerick, as well as all the centers that helped me improve my writing and my development as a student. I am grateful for the great support given to me by the human development center, as well as the scientific design and writing laboratory, which has incessantly helped me with all my pending issues. My advisor, Prof. Dr. Luiz Carlos de Abreu, and Prof. Dr. Eduardo Siqueira, for their patience and great mentoring. Tassiane Morais, Blanca Guerrero, and Célia Guarnieri, for their great support, as well as helping me in all the processes I went through in Limerick’s master’s in public health, and Henrique Moraes for allowing me to develop the secondary data banks and statistical analysis. In addition to the entire laboratory staff and who developed the master’s degree together with me. Last but not least, I would like to thank my family, partner, and friends, in particular, my father, Sandro José Lopes Cavalcanti, who is a strong and extremely generous man, and without him, none of this would be possible. I will be forever grateful for this opportunity.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022. Journal of Human Growth and Development


  • Covid-19
  • Epidemiology
  • Lethality
  • Mortality

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Life-span and Life-course Studies


Dive into the research topics of 'Trends in COVID-19 lethality and mortality rates in the State of Pernambuco, Brazil: a time series analysis from April 2020 to June 2021'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this