The use of a temporal analogue to predict future traffic accidents and winter road conditions in Sweden

Slippery roads due to ice and snow are a major cause of road traffic accidents in Sweden during the winter. This paper investigates the hypothesis that as the climate becomes increasingly milder there will be a reduction in the number of accidents in winter. Two months are compared in this analysis; one colder and drier than average, the other warmer and wetter than average. Despite the differences in weather between the 2 years, there was approximately the same number of accidents in both cases, although the exact cause of these accidents varied. It is concluded that using the warmer month as a temporal analogue, the accident rate in Sweden will not fall under current climate change scenarios. This result is attributed to the fact that drivers become more complacent in milder weather conditions where the risk of slippery roads is reduced. Copyright. (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society