The relationship of the seasonality of temperature and Ischaemic Heart Disease mortality: Implications for the climate-based health forecasting

Glenn McGregor, H Watkins, ML Cox

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The relationship between the seasonality of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and temperature is explored for the purpose of evaluating the climate-based predictability of the magnitude and timing of the annual IHD mortality peak for 5 English counties. Seasonality is described by the amplitude (magnitude) and phase (timing) of the first harmonic of the annual cycle of IHD mortality and mean and minimum temperature. Study results reveal a positive association between the amplitude of the annual IHD mortality cycle and temperature seasonality such that years with an exaggerated mortality peak are associated with years characterised by strong temperature seasonality. Overall, the timing of the annual mortality peak is positively associated with the timing of the lowest temperatures. Such findings provide some optimism for exploring the development of experimental climate-based health-forecasting models. This is because the simple climate-seasonality diagnostics presented here provide a fundamental source of predictability of the magnitude and timing of the annual IHD mortality peak.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)253-263
Number of pages11
JournalClimate Research
Volume25
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2004

Keywords

  • climate-based health forecasting
  • ischaemic heart disease mortality
  • climate and mortality seasonality
  • seasonal prediction

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