Abstract
Upcoming wide-field time-domain surveys, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to discover up to two orders of magnitude more strongly lensed supernovae per year than have so far been observed. Of these, Type IIn supernovae have been predicted to be detected more frequently than any other supernova type, despite their small relative detection fraction amongst non-lensed supernovae. However, previous studies that predict a large population of lensed Type IIn supernova detections model their time evolving spectrum as a pure blackbody. In reality, there is a deficit in the UV flux of supernovae relative to the blackbody continuum due to line-blanketing from iron-group elements in the ejecta and scattering effects. In this work we quantify the effect of this UV suppression on the detection rates by LSST of a simulated population of strongly lensed Type IIn supernovae, relative to a pure blackbody model, using a mock LSST observing run. With a blackbody model, we predict to detect ~70 lensed Type IIn supernova per year with LSST. By modelling a similar UV deficit to that seen in superluminous supernovae, we recover 60–80 per cent of the detections obtained using a pure blackbody model, of which ~10 detections per year are sufficiently bright (mi < 22.5 mag) and detected early enough (> 5 observations before light-curve peak) to enable high-cadence spectroscopic follow up.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | stag009 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society |
| Volume | 546 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| Early online date | 6 Jan 2026 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Feb 2026 |
Keywords
- gravitational lensing: strong
- methods: statistical
- transients: supernovae
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Next Generation Supernova Cosmology
Dhawan, S. (Principal Investigator)
UKRI Horizon Europe Underwriting EPSRC
1/02/25 → 31/01/30
Project: Research Councils
-
UK involvement in LSST: Phase C
Smith, G. (Principal Investigator)
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FACILITIES COUNCIL
1/04/23 → 31/12/26
Project: Research Councils
-
Castor: UK - Project Linkage: BLat CatA 22 CASTOR - This is part of the Science and Exploration Bilaterals Programme (project linkage stated below)
Nicholl, M. (Co-Investigator) & McGee, S. (Principal Investigator)
SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY FACILITIES COUNCIL, Uk Space Agency
1/01/23 → 30/09/23
Project: Other Government Departments
-
KilonovaRank: gravitational wave counterparts and exotic transients with next-generation surveys
Nicholl, M. (Principal Investigator)
1/09/21 → 30/09/23
Project: EU
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