Surgeon preference for treatment allocation in older people facing major gastrointestinal surgery: an application of the discrete choice experiment methodology

Aim: Variation in major gastrointestinal surgery rates in the older population suggests heterogeneity in surgical management. A higher prevalence of comorbidities, frailty and cognitive impairments in the older population may account for some variation. The aim of this study was to determine surgeon preference for major surgery versus conservative management in hypothetical patient scenarios based on key attributes.

Method: A survey was designed according to the discrete choice methodology guided by a separate qualitative study. Questions were designed to test for associations between key attributes (age, comorbidity, urgency of presentation, pathology, functional and cognitive status) and treatment preference for major gastrointestinal surgery versus conservative management. The survey consisting of 18 hypothetical scenarios was disseminated electronically to UK gastrointestinal surgeons. Binomial logistic regression was used to identify associations between the attributes and treatment preference.

Results: In total, 103 responses were received after 256 visits to the questionnaire site (response rate 40.2%). Participants answered 1847 out of the 1854 scenarios (99.6%). There was a preference for major surgery in 1112/1847 (60.2%) of all scenarios. Severe comorbidities (OR 0.001, 95% CI 0.000–0.030; P = 0.000), severe cognitive impairment (OR 0.001, 95% CI 0.000–0.033; P = 0.000) and age 85 years and above (OR 0.028, 95% CI 0.005–0.168; P = 0.000) were all significant in the decision not to offer major gastrointestinal surgery.

Conclusion: This study has demonstrated variation in surgical treatment preference according to key attributes in hypothetical scenarios. The development of fitness-stratified guidelines may help to reduce variation in surgical practice in the older population.