Scenarios analysis through a futures performance framework

Determining an urban environment's built form, whilst engineering the underlying infrastructure upon which it depends, has all too often been predicated on historical trends, legacies and hindsight. In the 21st century increased interconnectivity and interdependence requires management of complex systems (i.e. coupled human, natural and technological systems) where decision making and planning for the future are far from straightforward. Moreover, a greater awareness of sustainability and resiliency issues (e.g. engineering within resource constraints and climate change such that engineering solutions continue to deliver their intended benefits in the face of change) now requires consideration of a range of possible city changes and assessment of their short- and long-term impacts. Decision making in the face of such uncertainty requires interdisciplinary foresight tools that facilitate understanding and communication between diverse ranges of stakeholders. To facilitate this process, a newly developed future performance framework (FPF) is proposed. When used in conjunction with the long-term future scenario-based urban futures (UF) methodology and the UF (Excel-based) tool, the FPF demonstrates how to embed futures thinking within an earth systems engineering framework.