Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes

D.V.L. Hunt; D.R. Lombardi; S. Atkinson; A.R.G. Barber; M. Barnes; C.T. Boyko; J. Brown; J. Bryson; D. Butler; S. Caputo; M. Caserio; R. Coles; R.F.D. Cooper; R. Farmani; M. Gaterell; J. Hale; C. Hales; C.N. Hewitt; L. Jankovic; I. Jefferson; J. Leach; A.R. MacKenzie; F.A. Memon; J.P. Sadler; C. Weingaertner; J.D. Whyatt; C.D.F. Rogers

doi:10.3390/su4040740

Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes

D.V.L. Hunt, D.R. Lombardi, S. Atkinson, A.R.G. Barber, M. Barnes, C.T. Boyko, J. Brown, J. Bryson, D. Butler, S. Caputo, M. Caserio, R. Coles, R.F.D. Cooper, R. Farmani, M. Gaterell, J. Hale, C. Hales, C.N. Hewitt, L. Jankovic, I. JeffersonJ. Leach, A.R. MacKenzie, F.A. Memon, J.P. Sadler, C. Weingaertner, J.D. Whyatt, C.D.F. Rogers

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Abstract

Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (≥450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997-2011 and within this research, a sub-set of ≥160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform-PR, Market Forces-MF, Breakdown-B, Fortress World-FW, Eco-Communalism-EC and New Sustainability Paradigm-NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP-Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	740-772
Number of pages	33
Journal	Sustainability
Volume	4
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740
Publication status	Published - 20 Apr 2012

Keywords

sustainability
future scenarios
scenario archetypes

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10.3390/su4040740

Hunt_et_al_Scenario_Archetypes_Sustainability_2012
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Checked July 2015
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http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/4/4/740

Sustainable Regeneration: From Evidence-Based Urban Futures to Implementation
Rogers, C. (Principal Investigator), Barber, A. (Co-Investigator), Bryson, J. (Co-Investigator), Sadler, J. (Co-Investigator), Gaterell, M. (Co-Investigator) & Jefferson, I. (Co-Investigator)
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council
1/05/08 → 30/04/12
Project: Research Councils

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Hunt, D. V. L., Lombardi, D. R., Atkinson, S., Barber, A. R. G., Barnes, M., Boyko, C. T., Brown, J., Bryson, J., Butler, D., Caputo, S., Caserio, M., Coles, R., Cooper, R. F. D., Farmani, R., Gaterell, M., Hale, J., Hales, C., Hewitt, C. N., Jankovic, L., ... Rogers, C. D. F. (2012). Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes. Sustainability, 4(4), 740-772. https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740

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title = "Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes",

abstract = "Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (≥450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997-2011 and within this research, a sub-set of ≥160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform-PR, Market Forces-MF, Breakdown-B, Fortress World-FW, Eco-Communalism-EC and New Sustainability Paradigm-NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP-Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.",

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Hunt, DVL, Lombardi, DR, Atkinson, S, Barber, ARG, Barnes, M, Boyko, CT, Brown, J, Bryson, J, Butler, D, Caputo, S, Caserio, M, Coles, R, Cooper, RFD, Farmani, R, Gaterell, M, Hale, J, Hales, C, Hewitt, CN, Jankovic, L, Jefferson, I , Leach, J , MacKenzie, AR, Memon, FA, Sadler, JP, Weingaertner, C, Whyatt, JD & Rogers, CDF 2012, 'Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes', Sustainability, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 740-772. https://doi.org/10.3390/su4040740

TY - JOUR

T1 - Scenario archetypes

T2 - converging rather than diverging themes

AU - Hunt, D.V.L.

AU - Lombardi, D.R.

AU - Atkinson, S.

AU - Barber, A.R.G.

AU - Barnes, M.

AU - Boyko, C.T.

AU - Brown, J.

AU - Bryson, J.

AU - Butler, D.

AU - Caputo, S.

AU - Caserio, M.

AU - Coles, R.

AU - Cooper, R.F.D.

AU - Farmani, R.

AU - Gaterell, M.

AU - Hale, J.

AU - Hales, C.

AU - Hewitt, C.N.

AU - Jankovic, L.

AU - Jefferson, I.

AU - Leach, J.

AU - MacKenzie, A.R.

AU - Memon, F.A.

AU - Sadler, J.P.

AU - Weingaertner, C.

AU - Whyatt, J.D.

AU - Rogers, C.D.F.

PY - 2012/4/20

Y1 - 2012/4/20

N2 - Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (≥450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997-2011 and within this research, a sub-set of ≥160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform-PR, Market Forces-MF, Breakdown-B, Fortress World-FW, Eco-Communalism-EC and New Sustainability Paradigm-NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP-Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

AB - Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (≥450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997-2011 and within this research, a sub-set of ≥160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform-PR, Market Forces-MF, Breakdown-B, Fortress World-FW, Eco-Communalism-EC and New Sustainability Paradigm-NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP-Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

KW - sustainability

KW - future scenarios

KW - scenario archetypes

U2 - 10.3390/su4040740

DO - 10.3390/su4040740

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84861412650

SN - 2071-1050

VL - 4

SP - 740

EP - 772

JO - Sustainability

JF - Sustainability

IS - 4

ER -

Scenario archetypes: converging rather than diverging themes

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Keywords

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Sustainable Regeneration: From Evidence-Based Urban Futures to Implementation

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