Reliability Performances of Grid-Integrated PV Systems with Varying Climatic Conditions

Photovoltaics (PV) power generation is vulnerable to climate changes because operating voltages of PV cells can be affected by the operating temperature, power outputs can be affected by the levels of irradiances, and level of cell current can be affected by shading resulting from various causes. This paper explores variations in climatic conditions, operating temperature, irradiance, and shading on a PV system that sits on an ageing spectrum. Such PV systems are integrated to a power grid and the reliability performances of the grid were assessed using Monet Carlo simulation under varying demand conditions. The study incorporates probabilistic climate change projections from UKCP09 under different emission scenarios low, medium and high, for three time frames 2020s (2010-2039) , 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099) based on observation of 30 years historical weather data. Case study results suggest that the PV systems are vulnerable to climatic conditions considerably in the long run. The reliability performance of a power system can be affected by high penetration of PV power generation that is susceptible to varying climatic conditions. The impacts resulting from climatic conditions are inconstant with the ageing conditions of PV systems. A quantitative assessment is required for tracing PV system influences on a power system that is susceptible to varying climatic conditions.