Regional pathways to net zero: Energy and emissions intensities in the UK from 2015-2023

This report, by Dr Matt Lyons and Dr Stephen Brand, examines how UK regions’ GVA is becoming decoupled from energy inputs and emissions. Using data related to economic activity (GVA), energy inputs and emissions generated between 2015 and 2023. Nationally, GVA increased by 13 per cent over this period, with regional growth ranging between 7 and 16 per cent. At the same time, the energy required to produce £1 million of GVA fell by 18 per cent, and greenhouse gas emissions per £1 million of GVA fell by 33 per cent, demonstrating that the economy is generating value more sustainably. Employment trends suggest that some of these improvements are associated with industrial restructuring, with low-emissions sectors expanding faster than high-emissions activities, though further research is needed to disentangle the relative contributions of energy efficiency, technological improvements, and structural change.

Considerable differences remain between regions. All regions experienced reductions in emissions intensity, but the scale varies, from a 58 per cent reduction in the North East of England to 24 per cent in Scotland. The West Midlands recorded a 29 per cent decline overall, yet sub-regional analysis reveals wide variation, with reductions ranging from 18 to 53 per cent depending on local economic structure. Absolute emissions also differ, with metropolitan areas dominated by service sectors achieving lower emissions per unit of GVA than manufacturing-based authorities.

The findings highlight the importance of granular regional and sub-regional data for understanding the scale and pace of decarbonisation required to meet net-zero targets. They underscore that national averages mask significant spatial variation and that policy approaches must reflect local economic structures, energy systems, and sectoral composition to be effective and equitable.

This research is for the Local Policy Innovation Partnership (LPIP) Hub which seeks to address nationwide issues through local partnerships and place.

By working with local LPIPs, the Hub aims to understand and solve local challenges around the UK through an innovative and effective service-driven approach to place-based policy-making and public service delivery. The LPIP Hub is designed to lead to a step-change in the quality and impact of the evidence created by universities and their local place partners.

The Hub has £3.6 million from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC), and Innovate UK. It is a national consortium, led by the University of Birmingham, convening stakeholders across the research and policy ecosystem.