Prediction of periodontal disease: modelling and validation in different general German populations

Yiqiang Zhan, Birte Holtfreter, Peter Meisel, Thomas Hoffmann, Wolfgang Micheelis, Thomas Dietrich, Thomas Kocher

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

23 Citations (Scopus)


AIM: To develop models for periodontitis using self-reported questions and to validate them externally.

METHODS: The Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-0) was used for model development. Periodontitis was defined according to the definitions of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention-American Academy of Periodontology, the 5th European Workshop in Periodontology, and Dietrich et al. (≥2 teeth with inter-proximal clinical attachment loss of ≥4 mm and 6 mm as moderate and severe periodontitis) respectively. These models were validated in SHIP-Trend and the Fourth German Oral Health Study (DMS IV).

RESULTS: Final models included age, gender, education, smoking, bleeding on brushing and self-reported presence of mobile teeth. Concordance-statistics (C-statistics) of the final models from SHIP-0 were 0.84, 0.82 and 0.85 for the three definitions respectively. Validation in SHIP-Trend revealed C-statistics of 0.82, 0.81 and 0.82 respectively. As bleeding on brushing and presence of mobile teeth were unavailable in DMS IV, reduced models were developed. C-statistics of reduced models were 0.82, 0.81 and 0.83 respectively. Validation in DMS IV revealed C-statistics of 0.72, 0.78 and 0.72 for the three definitions respectively. All p values of the goodness-of-fit tests were >0.05.

CONCLUSIONS: The models yielded a moderate usefulness for prediction of periodontitis.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)224-31
Number of pages8
JournalJournal of Clinical Periodontology
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2014

Bibliographical note

© 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.


  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Cohort Studies
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Educational Status
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Germany
  • Gingival Hemorrhage
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical
  • Periodontal Attachment Loss
  • Periodontal Pocket
  • Periodontitis
  • Prevalence
  • Self Concept
  • Self Report
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Sex Factors
  • Smoking
  • Tooth Mobility
  • Young Adult


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