Prediction of long-term net clinical outcomes using the TIMI-AF score: Comparison with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc and HAS-BLED

José Miguel Rivera-caravaca, Vanessa Roldán, María Asunción Esteve-pastor, Mariano Valdés, Vicente Vicente, Francisco Marín, Gregory Y. H. Lip

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The TIMI-AF score was described to predict net clinical outcomes (NCOs) in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients receiving warfarin. However, this score derived from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial, and no external validation exists in real world clinical practice. We tested the long-term predictive performance of the TIMI-AF score in comparison with CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED in a ‘real-world’ cohort of anticoagulated AF patients.

We included 1156 consecutive AF patients stable on vitamin K antagonist (INR 2.0-3.0) during 6 months. The baseline risk of NCOs (composite of stroke, life-threatening bleeding, or all-cause mortality) was calculated using the novel TIMI-AF score. During follow-up, all NCOs were recorded and the predictive performance and clinical usefulness of TIMI-AF was compared with CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED.

During 6.5 years (IQR 4.3-7.9), there were 563 NCOs (7.49%/year). ‘Low-risk’ (6.07%/year) and ‘medium-risk’ (9.49%/year) patients defined by the TIMI-AF suffered more endpoints that low- and medium-risk patients of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (2.37%/year and 4.40%/year for low risk; 3.48%/year and 6.39%/year for medium risk, respectively). The predictive performance of TIMI-AF was not different from CHA2DS2-VASc (0.678 vs 0.677, P = .963) or HAS-BLED (0.644 vs 0.671, P = .054). Discrimination and reclassification did not show improvement of prediction using the TIMI-AF score, and decision curves analysis did not demonstrate higher net benefit.

In VKA-experienced AF patients, the TIMI-AF score has limited usefulness predicting NCOs over a long-term period of follow-up. This novel score was not superior to CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED identifying low-risk AF patients.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)27-34
JournalAmerican Heart Journal
Early online date10 Nov 2017
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2018


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