Abstract
Background: Hysterectomy, the most common gynecological operation, requires surgeons to counsel women about their operative risks. We aimed to develop and validate multivariable logistic regression models to predict major complications of laparoscopic or abdominal hysterectomy for benign conditions.
Methods: We obtained routinely collected health administrative data from the English National Health Service (NHS) from 2011 to 2018. We defined major complications based on core outcomes for postoperative complications including ureteric, gastrointestinal and vascular injury, and wound complications. We specified 11 predictors a priori. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination and calibration across 7 NHS regions in the development cohort. We validated the final models using data from an additional NHS region.
Results: We found that major complications occurred in 4.4% (3037/68 599) of laparoscopic and 4.9% (6201/125 971) of abdominal hysterectomies. Our models showed consistent discrimination in the development cohort (laparoscopic, C-statistic 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60 to 0.62; abdominal, C-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.70) and similar or better discrimination in the validation cohort (laparoscopic, C-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.69; abdominal, C-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.69). Adhesions were most predictive of complications in both models (laparoscopic, odds ratio [OR] 1.92, 95% CI 1.73 to 2.13; abdominal, OR 2.46, 95% CI 2.27 to 2.66). Other factors predictive of complications included adenomyosis in the laparoscopic model, and Asian ethnicity and diabetes in the abdominal model. Protective factors included age and diagnoses of menstrual disorders or benign adnexal mass in both models and diagnosis of fibroids in the abdominal model.
Interpretation: Personalized risk estimates from these models, which showed moderate discrimination, can inform clinical decision-making for people with benign conditions who may require hysterectomy.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | E1306-E1317 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | CMAJ. Canadian Medical Association Journal |
| Volume | 194 |
| Issue number | 38 |
| Early online date | 2 Oct 2022 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 3 Oct 2022 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:Content licence: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) licence, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided that the original publication is properly cited, the use is noncommercial (i.e., research or educational use), and no modifications or adaptations are made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Funding: The acquisition of the data was funded by the British Society for Gynaecological Endoscopy. They were not involved in the study design, analysis, interpretation of data, the writing of the report or the decision to submit the article for publication. Khalid Khan is a Distinguished Investigator funded by the Beatriz Galindo (senor modality) Program grant given to the University of Granada by the Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities of the Government of Spain.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Canadian Medical Association. All rights reserved.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General Medicine
