Pre-emptive detection and evolution of relapse in acute myeloid leukemia by flow cytometric measurable residual disease surveillance

Measurable residual disease (MRD) surveillance in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) may identify patients destined for relapse and thus provide the option of pre-emptive therapy to improve their outcome. Whilst flow cytometric MRD (Flow-MRD) can be applied to high-risk AML/ myelodysplasia patients, its diagnostic performance for detecting impending relapse is unknown. We evaluated this in a cohort comprising 136 true positives (bone marrows preceding relapse by a median of 2.45 months) and 155 true negatives (bone marrows during sustained remission). At an optimal Flow-MRD threshold of 0.040%, clinical sensitivity and specificity for relapse was 74% and 87% respectively (51% and 98% for Flow-MRD ≥ 0.1%) by ‘different-from-normal’ analysis. Median relapse kinetics were 0.78 log10/month but significantly higher at 0.92 log10/month for FLT3-mutated AML. Computational (unsupervised) Flow-MRD (C-Flow-MRD) generated optimal MRD thresholds of 0.036% and 0.082% with equivalent clinical sensitivity to standard analysis. C-Flow-MRD-identified aberrancies in HLADRlow or CD34+CD38low (LSC-type) subpopulations contributed the greatest clinical accuracy (56% sensitivity, 90% specificity) and notably, by longitudinal profiling expanded rapidly within blasts in > 40% of 86 paired MRD and relapse samples. In conclusion, flow MRD surveillance can detect MRD relapse in high risk AML and its evaluation may be enhanced by computational analysis.