Operational Upper Atmosphere Forecasts to Support Satellite Operations

The Advanced Ensemble electron density Assimilation System (AENeAS) represents a transformative approach in forecasting and nowcasting within the upper atmosphere, crucial for the precision navigation of satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Integrating a diverse array of data sources through a data assimilation framework, AENeAS delivers real-time, actionable forecasts that significantly enhance collision avoidance capabilities and satellite longevity. This paper details AENeAS's deployment at the UK Met Office, its data assimilation techniques, and the resultant improvements in orbit determination. Through validation against empirical and first-principles models, AENeAS demonstrates superior performance in reducing forecast bias and error standard deviation, offering an alternative to traditional thermosphere models. The operational success of AENeAS will not only contributes to a safer LEO environment but also underscores the importance of integrated, physics-based models in advancing space weather forecasting.