On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards

M. Angus; G. C. Leckebusch

doi:10.1029/2020GL090446

On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards

M. Angus^*, G. C. Leckebusch

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

The Atlantic hurricane season and the European windstorm season are found to be negatively correlated in a seasonal forecast model. The probability of extremes occurring in both seasons is compared to the probability of extremes in each season being independent of one another. An above average Atlantic hurricane season is followed by an above average European windstorm season less often than if they were independent, consistent across three intensity measures. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is found to be in the positive (negative) phase when hurricane activity is suppressed (enhanced) and European windstorm activity is enhanced (suppressed). A clear extratropical response in the seasonal forecast model to El Niño/La Niña provides a probable pathway for the observed correlation between the extreme event seasons. This result has important predictability implications for both the actuarial and seasonal forecasting communities.

Original language	English
Article number	e2020GL090446
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	47
Issue number	23
Early online date	16 Nov 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090446
Publication status	Published - 16 Dec 2020

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors would like to acknowledge that this project was funded by CoreLogic and thank I. Kuhnel, F. Eddounia, F. Chopin, and the anonymous reviewers for valuable input and discussion. Classification of tropical and extratropical events was developed in collaboration with colleagues at the University of Birmingham, K. Ng. Track density function was provided by M. Walz, SwissRe.

Publisher Copyright:
©2020. The Authors.

Keywords

natural hazard
tropical cyclone
windstorm

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

Access to Document

10.1029/2020GL090446Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC)

2020GL090446Final published version, 0.99 MBLicence: Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial (CC BY-NC)

Research Data Supporting the publication "On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards"
Angus, M. (Creator) & Leckebusch, G. (Creator), University of Birmingham, 11 Nov 2020
DOI: 10.25500/edata.bham.00000569
Dataset

Birmingham Environment for Academic Research (BEAR)
Facility/equipment: Equipment

Cite this

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abstract = "The Atlantic hurricane season and the European windstorm season are found to be negatively correlated in a seasonal forecast model. The probability of extremes occurring in both seasons is compared to the probability of extremes in each season being independent of one another. An above average Atlantic hurricane season is followed by an above average European windstorm season less often than if they were independent, consistent across three intensity measures. The El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation is found to be in the positive (negative) phase when hurricane activity is suppressed (enhanced) and European windstorm activity is enhanced (suppressed). A clear extratropical response in the seasonal forecast model to El Ni{\~n}o/La Ni{\~n}a provides a probable pathway for the observed correlation between the extreme event seasons. This result has important predictability implications for both the actuarial and seasonal forecasting communities.",

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N2 - The Atlantic hurricane season and the European windstorm season are found to be negatively correlated in a seasonal forecast model. The probability of extremes occurring in both seasons is compared to the probability of extremes in each season being independent of one another. An above average Atlantic hurricane season is followed by an above average European windstorm season less often than if they were independent, consistent across three intensity measures. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is found to be in the positive (negative) phase when hurricane activity is suppressed (enhanced) and European windstorm activity is enhanced (suppressed). A clear extratropical response in the seasonal forecast model to El Niño/La Niña provides a probable pathway for the observed correlation between the extreme event seasons. This result has important predictability implications for both the actuarial and seasonal forecasting communities.

AB - The Atlantic hurricane season and the European windstorm season are found to be negatively correlated in a seasonal forecast model. The probability of extremes occurring in both seasons is compared to the probability of extremes in each season being independent of one another. An above average Atlantic hurricane season is followed by an above average European windstorm season less often than if they were independent, consistent across three intensity measures. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is found to be in the positive (negative) phase when hurricane activity is suppressed (enhanced) and European windstorm activity is enhanced (suppressed). A clear extratropical response in the seasonal forecast model to El Niño/La Niña provides a probable pathway for the observed correlation between the extreme event seasons. This result has important predictability implications for both the actuarial and seasonal forecasting communities.

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On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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Datasets

Research Data Supporting the publication "On the Dependency of Atlantic Hurricane and European Windstorm Hazards"

Equipment

Birmingham Environment for Academic Research (BEAR)

Cite this