Nonlinear dynamic analysis of daily rainfall variability across the UK from 1989 to 2018

Proper understanding of rainfall variability is of essential importance for meteorological and hydrological modelling. This study examines whether a variety of nonlinear dynamic concepts can yield additional insights in the rainfall variability in the UK. Daily rainfall data recorded over a 30-yr period (1989–2018) from 32 mete- orological stations across the UK are analysed using recurrence plots, recurrence quantification analysis tech- niques and phase space reconstructions. The results of this analysis underscore the complex processes and variability that are associated with the UK’s rainfall data. The existence of chaos in UK rainfall data was iden- tified, and the extent of complexity in rainfall dynamics exhibited apparent geographic variability. In general, rainfall dynamics associated with stations on the Eastern coast and in central England tend to be more complex than those at other regions. Rainfall dynamics in Western and Northern Scotland were found to reveal marked long-term variability. Moreover, likewise to the rainfall total, seasonal variability in rainfall dynamics was also evident.