Narrowing the uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops

Andrea Toreti; Delphine Deryng; Francesco Tubiello; Christoph Müller; Bruce Kimball; Gerald Moser; Kenneth Boote; Senthold Asseng; Thomas Pugh; Eline Vanuytrecht; Hakan Pleijel; Heidi Webber; Jean-Louis Durand; Frank Dentener; Andrej Ceglar; Xuhui Wang; Franz Badeck; Remi Lecerf; Gerald Wall; Maurits van den Berg; Petra Hoegy; Raul Lopez-Lozano; Matteo Zampieri; Stefano Galmarini; Garry O'Leary; Remy Manderscheid; Erik Mencos Contreras; Cynthia Rosenzweig

doi:10.1038/s43016-020-00195-4

Narrowing the uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO₂ on crops

Andrea Toreti, Delphine Deryng, Francesco Tubiello, Christoph Müller, Bruce Kimball, Gerald Moser, Kenneth Boote, Senthold Asseng, Thomas Pugh, Eline Vanuytrecht, Hakan Pleijel, Heidi Webber, Jean-Louis Durand, Frank Dentener, Andrej Ceglar, Xuhui Wang, Franz Badeck, Remi Lecerf, Gerald Wall, Maurits van den BergPetra Hoegy, Raul Lopez-Lozano, Matteo Zampieri, Stefano Galmarini, Garry O'Leary, Remy Manderscheid, Erik Mencos Contreras, Cynthia Rosenzweig

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Abstract

Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	775–782
Journal	Nature Food
Volume	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00195-4
Publication status	Published - 11 Dec 2020

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Cite this

Toreti, A., Deryng, D., Tubiello, F., Müller, C., Kimball, B., Moser, G., Boote, K., Asseng, S., Pugh, T., Vanuytrecht, E., Pleijel, H., Webber, H., Durand, J.-L., Dentener, F., Ceglar, A., Wang, X., Badeck, F., Lecerf, R., Wall, G., ... Rosenzweig, C. (2020). Narrowing the uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO₂ on crops. Nature Food, 1, 775–782 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00195-4

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title = "Narrowing the uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops",

abstract = "Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.",

author = "Andrea Toreti and Delphine Deryng and Francesco Tubiello and Christoph M{\"u}ller and Bruce Kimball and Gerald Moser and Kenneth Boote and Senthold Asseng and Thomas Pugh and Eline Vanuytrecht and Hakan Pleijel and Heidi Webber and Jean-Louis Durand and Frank Dentener and Andrej Ceglar and Xuhui Wang and Franz Badeck and Remi Lecerf and Gerald Wall and {van den Berg}, Maurits and Petra Hoegy and Raul Lopez-Lozano and Matteo Zampieri and Stefano Galmarini and Garry O'Leary and Remy Manderscheid and {Mencos Contreras}, Erik and Cynthia Rosenzweig",

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Toreti, A, Deryng, D, Tubiello, F, Müller, C, Kimball, B, Moser, G, Boote, K, Asseng, S, Pugh, T, Vanuytrecht, E, Pleijel, H, Webber, H, Durand, J-L, Dentener, F, Ceglar, A, Wang, X, Badeck, F, Lecerf, R, Wall, G, van den Berg, M, Hoegy, P, Lopez-Lozano, R, Zampieri, M, Galmarini, S, O'Leary, G, Manderscheid, R, Mencos Contreras, E & Rosenzweig, C 2020, 'Narrowing the uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO₂ on crops', Nature Food, vol. 1, pp. 775–782 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-020-00195-4

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AU - Toreti, Andrea

AU - Deryng, Delphine

AU - Tubiello, Francesco

AU - Müller, Christoph

AU - Kimball, Bruce

AU - Moser, Gerald

AU - Boote, Kenneth

AU - Asseng, Senthold

AU - Pugh, Thomas

AU - Vanuytrecht, Eline

AU - Pleijel, Hakan

AU - Webber, Heidi

AU - Durand, Jean-Louis

AU - Dentener, Frank

AU - Ceglar, Andrej

AU - Wang, Xuhui

AU - Badeck, Franz

AU - Lecerf, Remi

AU - Wall, Gerald

AU - van den Berg, Maurits

AU - Hoegy, Petra

AU - Lopez-Lozano, Raul

AU - Zampieri, Matteo

AU - Galmarini, Stefano

AU - O'Leary, Garry

AU - Manderscheid, Remy

AU - Mencos Contreras, Erik

AU - Rosenzweig, Cynthia

PY - 2020/12/11

Y1 - 2020/12/11

N2 - Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.

AB - Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.

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JF - Nature Food

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