Motorcycle crash risk models for urban roads

Vu Le Phan, Harry Evdorides, James Bradford, John Mumford

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


This paper presents new models to estimate the potential of rear-end and sideswipe crashes for motorcycles moving in motorcycle-dominated traffic conditions on urban roads based on discrete choice theory and the traffic conflict technique. The proposed models were validated using vehicles’ trajectories data collected from an urban road in the city of Danang in Vietnam. The results showed that the models satisfactorily capture the movement characteristics of motorcycles in a motorcycle-dominated traffic environment and provide good estimates of rear-end and sideswipe crash risk for motorcyclists. They therefore have the potential for inclusion in the International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP) star rating system.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)397-407
Number of pages11
JournalProceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Transport
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2016

Bibliographical note

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ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Transportation


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