Motorcycle crash risk models for urban roads

This paper presents new models to estimate the potential of rear-end and sideswipe crashes for motorcycles moving in motorcycle-dominated traffic conditions on urban roads based on discrete choice theory and the traffic conflict technique. The proposed models were validated using vehicles’ trajectories data collected from an urban road in the city of Danang in Vietnam. The results showed that the models satisfactorily capture the movement characteristics of motorcycles in a motorcycle-dominated traffic environment and provide good estimates of rear-end and sideswipe crash risk for motorcyclists. They therefore have the potential for inclusion in the International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP) star rating system.