TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling Salmonella Typhi in high-density urban Blantyre neighbourhood, Malawi, using point pattern methods
AU - Khaki, Jessie J.
AU - Meiring, James E.
AU - Thindwa, Deus
AU - Henrion, Marc Y.R.
AU - Jere, Tikhala M.
AU - Msuku, Harrison
AU - The STRATAA Consortium
AU - Aryja, Amit
AU - Maharjan, Archana
AU - Dongol, Sabina
AU - Karkey, Abhilasha
AU - Bajracharya, Binod Lal
AU - Banda, David
AU - Masesa, Clemens
AU - Mbewe, Maurice
AU - Mangulenji, George
AU - Msefula, Chisomo
AU - Nyirenda, Tonney
AU - Mujadidi, Yama F.
AU - Voysey, Merryn
AU - Hill, Jennifer
AU - Gurung, Pallavi
AU - Khan, Arifuzzaman
AU - Saha, Nirod Chandra
AU - Biswas, Prasanta Kumar
AU - Adhikari, Anup
AU - the Nepal Family Development Foundation team
AU - Heyderman, Robert S.
AU - Gordon, Melita A.
AU - Giorgi, Emanuele
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.
PY - 2024/12
Y1 - 2024/12
N2 - Salmonella Typhi is a human-restricted pathogen that is transmitted by the faecal–oral route and causative organism of typhoid fever. Using health facility data from 2016 to 2020, this study focuses on modelling the spatial variation in typhoid risk in Ndirande township in Blantyre. To pursue this objective, we developed a marked inhomogeneous Poisson process model that allows us to incorporate both individual-level and environmental risk factors. The results from our analysis indicate that typhoid cases are spatially clustered, with the incidence decreasing by 54% for a unit increase in the water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) score. Typhoid intensity was also higher in children aged below 18 years than in adults. However, our results did not show evidence of a strong temporal variation in typhoid incidence. We also discuss the inferential benefits of using point pattern models to characterise the spatial variation in typhoid risk and outline possible extensions of the proposed modelling framework.
AB - Salmonella Typhi is a human-restricted pathogen that is transmitted by the faecal–oral route and causative organism of typhoid fever. Using health facility data from 2016 to 2020, this study focuses on modelling the spatial variation in typhoid risk in Ndirande township in Blantyre. To pursue this objective, we developed a marked inhomogeneous Poisson process model that allows us to incorporate both individual-level and environmental risk factors. The results from our analysis indicate that typhoid cases are spatially clustered, with the incidence decreasing by 54% for a unit increase in the water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) score. Typhoid intensity was also higher in children aged below 18 years than in adults. However, our results did not show evidence of a strong temporal variation in typhoid incidence. We also discuss the inferential benefits of using point pattern models to characterise the spatial variation in typhoid risk and outline possible extensions of the proposed modelling framework.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85199763767&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-024-66436-9
DO - 10.1038/s41598-024-66436-9
M3 - Article
C2 - 39060281
AN - SCOPUS:85199763767
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 14
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
IS - 1
M1 - 17164
ER -
