Looking ahead: imbalance, dependency and NATO’s uncertain future

Throughout is 75-year history, NATO’s European and Canadian allies have had a dependent and uneasy relationship with the United States. The relationship persisted because the United States was willing to shoulder a large proportion of the costs of memberships in return for a leadership role. Donald Trump has seemingly rejected that trade-off. The second Trump administration’s America First agenda presents a unique challenge to the Alliance. The administration has insisted the allies take on a greater share of NATO’s defence burden; Trump may also seek a peace-settlement in Ukraine that requires extraordinary European effort to police. The Alliance remains as susceptible as ever to the vagaries of American dominance and Trump’s position illustrates the inescapable fragility of transatlantic dependency.