Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

ForestPlots

doi:10.1126/science.aaw7578

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

ForestPlots

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	869-874
Number of pages	6
Journal	Science
Volume	368
Issue number	6493
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578
Publication status	Published - 22 May 2020

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1126/science.aaw7578Licence: None: All rights reserved

SullivanM2020Longterm
This is an Author Accepted Manuscript of a paper accepted for publication in Science, published by and copyright American Association for the Advancement of Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw7578
Accepted author manuscript, 4.24 MBLicence: None: All rights reserved

https://e-space.mmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/625810Licence: None: All rights reserved

Cite this

@article{15d84a9096e74a648608e9b97a9fcbd2,

title = "Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth{\textquoteright}s tropical forests",

abstract = "The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.",

author = "ForestPlots and Lewis, {Simon L.} and Kofi Affum-baffoe and Carolina Castilho and Fl{\'a}via Costa and Sanchez, {Aida Cuni} and Ewango, {Corneille E. N.} and Wannes Hubau and Beatriz Marimon and Abel Monteagudo-mendoza and Lan Qie and Bonaventure Sonk{\'e} and Martinez, {Rodolfo Vasquez} and Baker, {Timothy R.} and Brienen, {Roel J. W.} and Feldpausch, {Ted R.} and David Galbraith and Manuel Gloor and Yadvinder Malhi and Shin-ichiro Aiba and Alexiades, {Miguel N.} and Almeida, {Everton C.} and {De Oliveira}, {Edmar Almeida} and D{\'a}vila, {Esteban {\'A}lvarez} and Loayza, {Patricia Alvarez} and Ana Andrade and Vieira, {Simone Aparecida} and Arag{\~a}o, {Luiz E. O. C.} and Alejandro Araujo-murakami and Arets, {Eric J. M. M.} and Luzmila Arroyo and {Aymard C.}, Gerardo and Baccaro, {Fabr{\'i}cio B.} and Banin, {Lindsay F.} and Christopher Baraloto and Camargo, {Pl{\'i}nio Barbosa} and Jos Barlow and Jorcely Barroso and Jean-fran{\c c}ois Bastin and Batterman, {Sarah A.} and Hans Beeckman and Begne, {Serge K.} and Bennett, {Amy C.} and Erika Berenguer and Lilian Blanc and Pascal Boeckx and Jan Bogaert and Damien Bonal and Frans Bongers and Matt Bradford and Adriane Esquivel-muelbert",

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doi = "10.1126/science.aaw7578",

language = "English",

volume = "368",

pages = "869--874",

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publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

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AU - Lewis, Simon L.

AU - Affum-baffoe, Kofi

AU - Castilho, Carolina

AU - Costa, Flávia

AU - Sanchez, Aida Cuni

AU - Ewango, Corneille E. N.

AU - Hubau, Wannes

AU - Marimon, Beatriz

AU - Monteagudo-mendoza, Abel

AU - Qie, Lan

AU - Sonké, Bonaventure

AU - Martinez, Rodolfo Vasquez

AU - Baker, Timothy R.

AU - Brienen, Roel J. W.

AU - Feldpausch, Ted R.

AU - Galbraith, David

AU - Gloor, Manuel

AU - Malhi, Yadvinder

AU - Aiba, Shin-ichiro

AU - Alexiades, Miguel N.

AU - Almeida, Everton C.

AU - De Oliveira, Edmar Almeida

AU - Dávila, Esteban Álvarez

AU - Loayza, Patricia Alvarez

AU - Andrade, Ana

AU - Vieira, Simone Aparecida

AU - Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.

AU - Araujo-murakami, Alejandro

AU - Arets, Eric J. M. M.

AU - Arroyo, Luzmila

AU - Aymard C., Gerardo

AU - Baccaro, Fabrício B.

AU - Banin, Lindsay F.

AU - Baraloto, Christopher

AU - Camargo, Plínio Barbosa

AU - Barlow, Jos

AU - Barroso, Jorcely

AU - Bastin, Jean-françois

AU - Batterman, Sarah A.

AU - Beeckman, Hans

AU - Begne, Serge K.

AU - Bennett, Amy C.

AU - Berenguer, Erika

AU - Blanc, Lilian

AU - Boeckx, Pascal

AU - Bogaert, Jan

AU - Bonal, Damien

AU - Bongers, Frans

AU - Bradford, Matt

AU - Esquivel-muelbert, Adriane

PY - 2020/5/22

Y1 - 2020/5/22

N2 - The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

AB - The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85085155504&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1126/science.aaw7578

DO - 10.1126/science.aaw7578

M3 - Article

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 368

SP - 869

EP - 874

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6493

ER -

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

Abstract

Bibliographical note

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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Cite this