Institutional Outcomes of Territorial Contestation: Lessons from Post-Communist Europe, 1989-2012

Since 1989, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced major institu-tional transformations. As part of that process, territorial contestations between states and eth-nic minorities engendered three outcomes: negotiated territorial self-government (TSG) ar-rangements; the denial of such arrangements; and the emergence of de-facto states. Through a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) of 24 minority TSG claims in 17 post-communist CEE states, we find that: (1) TSG arrangements emerged as externally facilitated instruments for managing or preventing violent conflict in predominantly low-capacity, only partially demo-cratic states; (2) peacefully pursued TSG claims were most likely to be denied in high-capacity consolidated democracies; and (3) de-facto states emerged where patron-states intervened in violent conflicts in low-capacity states. These findings defy widely held expectations about the influence of Europeanization, coupled with democratic consolidation, on the accommodation of minority claims; and they offer new insights into the significance of external intervention for the institutional outcomes of ethnic minority TSG claims.