Incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women in England: two methods of estimation

Malcolm Price, AE Ades, Daniela De Angelis, Nicky J Welton, John MacLeod, Katy Turner, Paddy Horner

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    Information on the incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) is essential for models of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening programmes. We developed two independent estimates of CT incidence in women in England: one based on an incidence study, with estimates “recalibrated” to the general population using data on setting-specific relative risks, and allowing for clearance and re-infection during follow-up; the second based on UK prevalence data, and information on the duration of CT infection. The consistency of independent sources of data on incidence, prevalence and duration, validates estimates of these parameters. Pooled estimates of the annual incidence rate in women aged 16-24 and 16-44 for 2001-2005 using all these data were 0.05(0.035,0.071) and 0.021(0.015,0.028) respectively. Although, the estimates apply to England, similar methods could be used in other countries. The methods could be extended to dynamic models to synthesise, and assess the consistency of data on contact and transmission rates
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)562-576
    Number of pages15
    JournalEpidemiology and Infection
    Issue number3
    Early online date13 Jun 2013
    Publication statusPublished - Mar 2014


    • Bayesian analysis
    • Chlamydia
    • evidence synthesis
    • incidence
    • multi-parameter evidence synthesis


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