How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

D. Scolnic; R. Kessler; D. Brout; P.~S. Cowperthwaite; M. Soares-Santos; J. Annis; K. Herner; H. -Y. Chen; M. Sako; Z. Doctor; R.~E. Butler; A. Palmese; H.~T. Diehl; J. Frieman; D.~E. Holz; E. Berger; R. Chornock; V.~A. Villar; M. Nicholl; R. Biswas; R. Hounsell; R.~J. Foley; J. Metzger; A. Rest; J. Garcia-Bellido; A. Möller; P. Nugent; T.~M.~C. Abbott; F.~B. Abdalla; S. Allam; K. Bechtol; A. Benoit-Lévy; E. Bertin; D. Brooks; E. Buckley-Geer; A. Carnero Rosell; M. Carrasco Kind; J. Carretero; F.~J. Castander; C.~E. Cunha; C.~B. D'Andrea; L.~N. da Costa; C. Davis; P. Doel; A. Drlica-Wagner; T.~F. Eifler; B. Flaugher; P. Fosalba; E. Gaztanaga; D.~W. Gerdes; D. Gruen; R.~A. Gruendl; J. Gschwend; G. Gutierrez; W.~G. Hartley; K. Honscheid; D.~J. James; M.~W.~G. Johnson; M.~D. Johnson; E. Krause; K. Kuehn; S. Kuhlmann; O. Lahav; T.~S. Li; M. Lima; M.~A.~G. Maia; M. March; J.~L. Marshall; F. Menanteau; R. Miquel; E. Neilsen; A.~A. Plazas; E. Sanchez; V. Scarpine; M. Schubnell; I. Sevilla-Noarbe; M. Smith; R.~C. Smith; F. Sobreira; E. Suchyta; M.~E.~C. Swanson; G. Tarle; R.~C. Thomas; D.~L. Tucker; A.~R. Walker; DES Collaboration

doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

D. Scolnic, R. Kessler, D. Brout, P.~S. Cowperthwaite, M. Soares-Santos, J. Annis, K. Herner, H. -Y. Chen, M. Sako, Z. Doctor, R.~E. Butler, A. Palmese, H.~T. Diehl, J. Frieman, D.~E. Holz, E. Berger, R. Chornock, V.~A. Villar, M. Nicholl, R. BiswasR. Hounsell, R.~J. Foley, J. Metzger, A. Rest, J. Garcia-Bellido, A. Möller, P. Nugent, T.~M.~C. Abbott, F.~B. Abdalla, S. Allam, K. Bechtol, A. Benoit-Lévy, E. Bertin, D. Brooks, E. Buckley-Geer, A. Carnero Rosell, M. Carrasco Kind, J. Carretero, F.~J. Castander, C.~E. Cunha, C.~B. D'Andrea, L.~N. da Costa, C. Davis, P. Doel, A. Drlica-Wagner, T.~F. Eifler, B. Flaugher, P. Fosalba, E. Gaztanaga, D.~W. Gerdes, D. Gruen, R.~A. Gruendl, J. Gschwend, G. Gutierrez, W.~G. Hartley, K. Honscheid, D.~J. James, M.~W.~G. Johnson, M.~D. Johnson, E. Krause, K. Kuehn, S. Kuhlmann, O. Lahav, T.~S. Li, M. Lima, M.~A.~G. Maia, M. March, J.~L. Marshall, F. Menanteau, R. Miquel, E. Neilsen, A.~A. Plazas, E. Sanchez, V. Scarpine, M. Schubnell, I. Sevilla-Noarbe, M. Smith, R.~C. Smith, F. Sobreira, E. Suchyta, M.~E.~C. Swanson, G. Tarle, R.~C. Thomas, D.~L. Tucker, A.~R. Walker, DES Collaboration

Physics and Astronomy

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

25 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of ${10}^{3}\,{\mathrm{Gpc}}^{-3}\,{\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}$, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is $z=0.8$ for WFIRST, $z=0.25$ for LSST, and $z=0.04$ for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	L3
Journal	The Astrophysical Journal Letters
Volume	852
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82
Publication status	Published - 1 Jan 2018

Keywords

stars: neutron
Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

Access to Document

10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82

Cite this

Scolnic, D., Kessler, R., Brout, D., Cowperthwaite, P. S., Soares-Santos, M., Annis, J., Herner, K., Chen, H. .-Y., Sako, M., Doctor, Z., Butler, R. E., Palmese, A., Diehl, H. T., Frieman, J., Holz, D. E., Berger, E., Chornock, R., Villar, V. A., Nicholl, M., ... Collaboration, DES. (2018). How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets? The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 852(1), L3. https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82

@article{041c9587f0b442139713a11fe7ea8d6a,

title = "How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?",

abstract = "The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of ${10}^{3}\,{\mathrm{Gpc}}^{-3}\,{\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}$, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is $z=0.8$ for WFIRST, $z=0.25$ for LSST, and $z=0.04$ for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.",

keywords = "stars: neutron, Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics",

author = "D. Scolnic and R. Kessler and D. Brout and P.~S. Cowperthwaite and M. Soares-Santos and J. Annis and K. Herner and Chen, {H. -Y.} and M. Sako and Z. Doctor and R.~E. Butler and A. Palmese and H.~T. Diehl and J. Frieman and D.~E. Holz and E. Berger and R. Chornock and V.~A. Villar and M. Nicholl and R. Biswas and R. Hounsell and R.~J. Foley and J. Metzger and A. Rest and J. Garcia-Bellido and A. M{\"o}ller and P. Nugent and T.~M.~C. Abbott and F.~B. Abdalla and S. Allam and K. Bechtol and A. Benoit-L{\'e}vy and E. Bertin and D. Brooks and E. Buckley-Geer and {Carnero Rosell}, A. and {Carrasco Kind}, M. and J. Carretero and F.~J. Castander and C.~E. Cunha and C.~B. D'Andrea and {da Costa}, L.~N. and C. Davis and P. Doel and A. Drlica-Wagner and T.~F. Eifler and B. Flaugher and P. Fosalba and E. Gaztanaga and D.~W. Gerdes and D. Gruen and R.~A. Gruendl and J. Gschwend and G. Gutierrez and W.~G. Hartley and K. Honscheid and D.~J. James and M.~W.~G. Johnson and M.~D. Johnson and E. Krause and K. Kuehn and S. Kuhlmann and O. Lahav and T.~S. Li and M. Lima and M.~A.~G. Maia and M. March and J.~L. Marshall and F. Menanteau and R. Miquel and E. Neilsen and A.~A. Plazas and E. Sanchez and V. Scarpine and M. Schubnell and I. Sevilla-Noarbe and M. Smith and R.~C. Smith and F. Sobreira and E. Suchyta and M.~E.~C. Swanson and G. Tarle and R.~C. Thomas and D.~L. Tucker and A.~R. Walker and DES Collaboration",

year = "2018",

month = jan,

day = "1",

doi = "10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82",

language = "English",

volume = "852",

pages = "L3",

journal = "The Astrophysical Journal Letters",

number = "1",

}

Scolnic, D, Kessler, R, Brout, D, Cowperthwaite, PS, Soares-Santos, M, Annis, J, Herner, K, Chen, H-Y, Sako, M, Doctor, Z, Butler, RE, Palmese, A, Diehl, HT, Frieman, J, Holz, DE, Berger, E, Chornock, R, Villar, VA, Nicholl, M, Biswas, R, Hounsell, R, Foley, RJ, Metzger, J, Rest, A, Garcia-Bellido, J, Möller, A, Nugent, P, Abbott, TMC, Abdalla, FB, Allam, S, Bechtol, K, Benoit-Lévy, A, Bertin, E, Brooks, D, Buckley-Geer, E, Carnero Rosell, A, Carrasco Kind, M, Carretero, J, Castander, FJ, Cunha, CE, D'Andrea, CB, da Costa, LN, Davis, C, Doel, P, Drlica-Wagner, A, Eifler, TF, Flaugher, B, Fosalba, P, Gaztanaga, E, Gerdes, DW, Gruen, D, Gruendl, RA, Gschwend, J, Gutierrez, G, Hartley, WG, Honscheid, K, James, DJ, Johnson, MWG, Johnson, MD, Krause, E, Kuehn, K, Kuhlmann, S, Lahav, O, Li, TS, Lima, M, Maia, MAG, March, M, Marshall, JL, Menanteau, F, Miquel, R, Neilsen, E, Plazas, AA, Sanchez, E, Scarpine, V, Schubnell, M, Sevilla-Noarbe, I, Smith, M, Smith, RC, Sobreira, F, Suchyta, E, Swanson, MEC, Tarle, G, Thomas, RC, Tucker, DL, Walker, AR & Collaboration, DES 2018, 'How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?', The Astrophysical Journal Letters, vol. 852, no. 1, pp. L3. https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82