Honoring F. Gregory Gause, III’s scholarship at an Age of Upheaval: Still …Balancing What? The Study of Threat Perception and Alliances in the Middle East

This essay critically engages with one of the most influential articles authored by F. Gregory Gause, III, which explores threat perceptions and alliance formation in the Persian Gulf. The article stands out for its theoretical innovation and empirical contribution to the study of alliances in the Middle East and beyond. In this essay, I situate Gause’s work within the broader literature on international relations, alliance theory, and Middle East politics. I discuss the contribution of his theoretical argument building on the logic of regime survival —combining realist and ideational perspectives along with domestic-level analysis to explain state behavior. This framework offers a compelling explanation for the seemingly counterintuitive alliance choices made by Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia between 1971 and 1991. Finally, I reflect on the article’s enduring impact on subsequent scholarship, including its influence on my own research on alliances and international relations in the region.