Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Xuhui Wang; Christoph Müller; Joshua Elliot; Nathaniel D. Mueller; Philippe Ciais; Jonas Jägermeyr; James Gerber; Patrice Dumas; Chenzhi Wang; Hui Yang; Laurent Li; Delphine Deryng; Christian Folberth; Wenfeng Liu; David Makowski; Stefan Olin; Thomas A.M. Pugh; Ashwan Reddy; Erwin Schmid; Sujong Jeong; Feng Zhou; Shilong Piao

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21498-5

Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Xuhui Wang^*, Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliot, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Jonas Jägermeyr, James Gerber, Patrice Dumas, Chenzhi Wang, Hui Yang, Laurent Li, Delphine Deryng, Christian Folberth, Wenfeng Liu, David Makowski, Stefan Olin, Thomas A.M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Sujong JeongFeng Zhou, Shilong Piao

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

Original language	English
Article number	1235
Number of pages	8
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	12
Issue number	1
Early online date	23 Feb 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21498-5
Publication status	Published - Dec 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0604702 & 2019YFA0607302) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (42041007 & 41988101).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Chemistry
General Biochemistry,Genetics and Molecular Biology
General Physics and Astronomy

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41467-021-21498-5Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

WangX2021GlobalFinal published version, 25.2 MBLicence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

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Wang, X., Müller, C., Elliot, J., Mueller, N. D., Ciais, P., Jägermeyr, J., Gerber, J., Dumas, P., Wang, C., Yang, H., Li, L., Deryng, D., Folberth, C., Liu, W., Makowski, D., Olin, S., Pugh, T. A. M., Reddy, A., Schmid, E., ... Piao, S. (2021). Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield. Nature Communications, 12(1), Article 1235. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21498-5

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abstract = "Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.",

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note = "Funding Information: This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0604702 & 2019YFA0607302) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (42041007 & 41988101). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

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Wang, X, Müller, C, Elliot, J, Mueller, ND, Ciais, P, Jägermeyr, J, Gerber, J, Dumas, P, Wang, C, Yang, H, Li, L, Deryng, D, Folberth, C, Liu, W, Makowski, D, Olin, S, Pugh, TAM, Reddy, A, Schmid, E, Jeong, S, Zhou, F & Piao, S 2021, 'Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield', Nature Communications, vol. 12, no. 1, 1235. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21498-5

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T1 - Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

AU - Wang, Xuhui

AU - Müller, Christoph

AU - Elliot, Joshua

AU - Mueller, Nathaniel D.

AU - Ciais, Philippe

AU - Jägermeyr, Jonas

AU - Gerber, James

AU - Dumas, Patrice

AU - Wang, Chenzhi

AU - Yang, Hui

AU - Li, Laurent

AU - Deryng, Delphine

AU - Folberth, Christian

AU - Liu, Wenfeng

AU - Makowski, David

AU - Olin, Stefan

AU - Pugh, Thomas A.M.

AU - Reddy, Ashwan

AU - Schmid, Erwin

AU - Jeong, Sujong

AU - Zhou, Feng

AU - Piao, Shilong

N1 - Funding Information: This study was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0604702 & 2019YFA0607302) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (42041007 & 41988101). Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).

PY - 2021/12

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N2 - Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

AB - Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

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Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Abstract

Bibliographical note

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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