Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium; Paul Elliott; David Haw; Haowei Wang; Oliver  Eales; Caroline E.  Walters; Kylie E. C.  Ainslie; Christina Atchison; Claudio Fronterre; Peter J.  Diggle; Andrew J. Page; Alexander J. Trotter; Sophie J. Prosolek; Deborah Ashby; Christl A. Donnelly; Wendy Barclay; Graham  Taylor; Graham Cooke; Helen Ward; Ara  Darzi; Steven  Riley; Alan McNally; Andrew Beggs

doi:10.1126/science.abl9551

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Paul Elliott, David Haw, Haowei Wang, Oliver Eales, Caroline E. Walters, Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Christina Atchison, Claudio Fronterre, Peter J. Diggle, Andrew J. Page, Alexander J. Trotter, Sophie J. Prosolek, Deborah Ashby, Christl A. Donnelly, Wendy Barclay, Graham Taylor, Graham Cooke, Helen Ward, Ara DarziSteven Riley, Alan McNally, Andrew Beggs

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Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.

Original language	English
Article number	eabl9551
Number of pages	18
Journal	Science
Early online date	2 Nov 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abl9551
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 2 Nov 2021

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COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Elliott, P., Haw, D., Wang, H., Eales, O., Walters, C. E., Ainslie, K. E. C., Atchison, C., Fronterre, C., Diggle, P. J., Page, A. J., Trotter, A. J., Prosolek, S. J., Ashby, D., Donnelly, C. A., Barclay, W., Taylor, G., Cooke, G., Ward, H., ... Beggs, A. (2021). Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant. Science, Article eabl9551. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abl9551

@article{dd07c61651534c72ab20c65eb809fa02,

title = "Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant",

abstract = "SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.",

author = "{COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium} and Paul Elliott and David Haw and Haowei Wang and Oliver Eales and Walters, {Caroline E.} and Ainslie, {Kylie E. C.} and Christina Atchison and Claudio Fronterre and Diggle, {Peter J.} and Page, {Andrew J.} and Trotter, {Alexander J.} and Prosolek, {Sophie J.} and Deborah Ashby and Donnelly, {Christl A.} and Wendy Barclay and Graham Taylor and Graham Cooke and Helen Ward and Ara Darzi and Steven Riley and Alan McNally and Andrew Beggs",

year = "2021",

month = nov,

day = "2",

doi = "10.1126/science.abl9551",

language = "English",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

}

COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Elliott, P, Haw, D, Wang, H, Eales, O, Walters, CE, Ainslie, KEC, Atchison, C, Fronterre, C, Diggle, PJ, Page, AJ, Trotter, AJ, Prosolek, SJ, Ashby, D, Donnelly, CA, Barclay, W, Taylor, G, Cooke, G, Ward, H, Darzi, A, Riley, S, McNally, A & Beggs, A 2021, 'Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant', Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abl9551

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T1 - Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

AU - COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium

AU - Elliott, Paul

AU - Haw, David

AU - Wang, Haowei

AU - Eales, Oliver

AU - Walters, Caroline E.

AU - Ainslie, Kylie E. C.

AU - Atchison, Christina

AU - Fronterre, Claudio

AU - Diggle, Peter J.

AU - Page, Andrew J.

AU - Trotter, Alexander J.

AU - Prosolek, Sophie J.

AU - Ashby, Deborah

AU - Donnelly, Christl A.

AU - Barclay, Wendy

AU - Taylor, Graham

AU - Cooke, Graham

AU - Ward, Helen

AU - Darzi, Ara

AU - Riley, Steven

AU - McNally, Alan

AU - Beggs, Andrew

PY - 2021/11/2

Y1 - 2021/11/2

N2 - SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.

AB - SARS-CoV-2 infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries associated with the Delta variant. We assessed RT-PCR swab-positivity in the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in England. We observed sustained exponential growth with average doubling time (June-July 2021) of 25 days driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant by Delta, and by high prevalence at younger less-vaccinated ages. Unvaccinated people were three times more likely than double-vaccinated people to test positive. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.

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DO - 10.1126/science.abl9551

M3 - Article

C2 - 34726481

SN - 0036-8075

JO - Science

JF - Science

M1 - eabl9551

ER -

Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant

Abstract

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