Estimates of Future New Particle Formation under Different Emission Scenarios in Beijing

James Brean; Alex Rowell; David Beddows; Zongbo Shi; Roy Harrison

doi:10.1021/acs.est.2c08348

Estimates of Future New Particle Formation under Different Emission Scenarios in Beijing

James Brean^*, Alex Rowell, David Beddows, Zongbo Shi, Roy Harrison^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

64 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

New particle formation (NPF) is a leading source of particulate matter by number and a contributor to particle mass during haze events. Reductions in emissions of air pollutants, many of which are NPF precursors, are expected in the move toward carbon neutrality or net-zero. Expected changes to pollutant emissions are used to investigate future changes to NPF processes, in comparison to a simulation of current conditions. The projected changes to SO2 emissions are key in changing future NPF number, with different scenarios producing either a doubling or near total reduction in sulfuric acid-amine particle formation rates. Particle growth rates are projected to change little in all but the strictest emission control scenarios. These changes will reduce the particle mass arising by NPF substantially, thus showing a further cobenefit of net-zero policies. Major uncertainties remain in future NPF including the volatility of oxygenated organic molecules resulting from changes to NOx and amine emissions.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	4741-4750
Number of pages	10
Journal	Environmental Science and Technology
Volume	57
Issue number	12
Early online date	17 Mar 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.2c08348
Publication status	Published - 28 Mar 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant number 2021GRIP02COP-AQ, R.M.H. and Z.S.).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society.

Keywords

NPF
nucleation
growth
aerosols
net-zero
China
Anthropogenic Impacts on the Atmosphere
Article

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Chemistry
Environmental Chemistry

Access to Document

10.1021/acs.est.2c08348Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

BreanJ2023EstimatesFinal published version, 3.5 MBLicence: Creative Commons: Attribution (CC BY)

UK-China Collaboration to Optimise net zero Policy options for Air Quality and health (COP-AQ)
Shi, Z. (Principal Investigator), Harrison, R. (Co-Investigator) & Bloss, W. (Co-Investigator)
Natural Environment Research Council
19/11/21 → 31/03/22
Project: Research Councils

Cite this

@article{e08b5ea7cbe344db90de42751b337f34,

title = "Estimates of Future New Particle Formation under Different Emission Scenarios in Beijing",

abstract = "New particle formation (NPF) is a leading source of particulate matter by number and a contributor to particle mass during haze events. Reductions in emissions of air pollutants, many of which are NPF precursors, are expected in the move toward carbon neutrality or net-zero. Expected changes to pollutant emissions are used to investigate future changes to NPF processes, in comparison to a simulation of current conditions. The projected changes to SO2 emissions are key in changing future NPF number, with different scenarios producing either a doubling or near total reduction in sulfuric acid-amine particle formation rates. Particle growth rates are projected to change little in all but the strictest emission control scenarios. These changes will reduce the particle mass arising by NPF substantially, thus showing a further cobenefit of net-zero policies. Major uncertainties remain in future NPF including the volatility of oxygenated organic molecules resulting from changes to NOx and amine emissions.",

keywords = "NPF, nucleation, growth, aerosols, net-zero, China, Anthropogenic Impacts on the Atmosphere, Article",

author = "James Brean and Alex Rowell and David Beddows and Zongbo Shi and Roy Harrison",

note = "Funding Information: This study was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant number 2021GRIP02COP-AQ, R.M.H. and Z.S.). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society.",

year = "2023",

month = mar,

day = "28",

doi = "10.1021/acs.est.2c08348",

language = "English",

volume = "57",

pages = "4741--4750",

journal = "Environmental Science and Technology",

issn = "0013-936X",

publisher = "American Chemical Society",

number = "12",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimates of Future New Particle Formation under Different Emission Scenarios in Beijing

AU - Brean, James

AU - Rowell, Alex

AU - Beddows, David

AU - Shi, Zongbo

AU - Harrison, Roy

N1 - Funding Information: This study was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant number 2021GRIP02COP-AQ, R.M.H. and Z.S.). Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society.

PY - 2023/3/28

Y1 - 2023/3/28

N2 - New particle formation (NPF) is a leading source of particulate matter by number and a contributor to particle mass during haze events. Reductions in emissions of air pollutants, many of which are NPF precursors, are expected in the move toward carbon neutrality or net-zero. Expected changes to pollutant emissions are used to investigate future changes to NPF processes, in comparison to a simulation of current conditions. The projected changes to SO2 emissions are key in changing future NPF number, with different scenarios producing either a doubling or near total reduction in sulfuric acid-amine particle formation rates. Particle growth rates are projected to change little in all but the strictest emission control scenarios. These changes will reduce the particle mass arising by NPF substantially, thus showing a further cobenefit of net-zero policies. Major uncertainties remain in future NPF including the volatility of oxygenated organic molecules resulting from changes to NOx and amine emissions.

AB - New particle formation (NPF) is a leading source of particulate matter by number and a contributor to particle mass during haze events. Reductions in emissions of air pollutants, many of which are NPF precursors, are expected in the move toward carbon neutrality or net-zero. Expected changes to pollutant emissions are used to investigate future changes to NPF processes, in comparison to a simulation of current conditions. The projected changes to SO2 emissions are key in changing future NPF number, with different scenarios producing either a doubling or near total reduction in sulfuric acid-amine particle formation rates. Particle growth rates are projected to change little in all but the strictest emission control scenarios. These changes will reduce the particle mass arising by NPF substantially, thus showing a further cobenefit of net-zero policies. Major uncertainties remain in future NPF including the volatility of oxygenated organic molecules resulting from changes to NOx and amine emissions.

KW - NPF

KW - nucleation

KW - growth

KW - aerosols

KW - net-zero

KW - China

KW - Anthropogenic Impacts on the Atmosphere

KW - Article

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85150342457&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1021/acs.est.2c08348

DO - 10.1021/acs.est.2c08348

M3 - Article

C2 - 36930743

AN - SCOPUS:85150342457

SN - 0013-936X

VL - 57

SP - 4741

EP - 4750

JO - Environmental Science and Technology

JF - Environmental Science and Technology

IS - 12

ER -

Estimates of Future New Particle Formation under Different Emission Scenarios in Beijing

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Projects

UK-China Collaboration to Optimise net zero Policy options for Air Quality and health (COP-AQ)

Cite this