Enhancing flood forecasting system in India to support healthcare and strengthen community resilience

India is highly vulnerable to flood hazards due to its geographic location and seasonal monsoon. Floods are among the most devastating natural disasters in the country, often affecting millions of people and causing widespread disruption. For example, the 2018 Kerala flood, which was triggered by 164% above-normal rainfall, resulted in severe inundation across approximately 338 km² lasting for 78 days. Under climate change, the magnitude and frequency of floods are projected to increase across many regions of India. Flooding emergencies pose critical challenges to healthcare services, particularly for patients with non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory conditions, and diabetes. Interruptions in access to medications, prescriptions, and health services during floods significantly impact their health conditions. Current flood forecasting approaches in India are constrained by short lead times (often less than 3–5 days), limited spatial resolution, and a lack of integration between weather forecasts, flood inundation models, and healthcare planning.

To enhance community resilience and preparedness for flooding emergencies, our project focuses on selected flood-vulnerable clusters in Kerala and Bihar, aiming to: 1) identify impact-based rainfall and flood thresholds for different clusters using flood impact data collected from surveys and questionnaires; 2) develop an integrated meteorological-hydrological forecasting system to substantially improve flood predictions in both lead time and accuracy; 3) quantify future changes in flood risk under climate change to support long-term disaster and healthcare planning. It is expected that improved flood forecasting and a better understanding of flood thresholds and future risks will greatly improve health outcomes and lead to more resilient communities.