Elementary modelling and behavioural analysis for emergency evacuations using social media

John Fry, Jane M. Binner

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

21 Citations (Scopus)
283 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Social media usage in evacuations and emergency management represents a rapidly expanding field of study. Our paper thus provides quantitative insight into a serious practical problem. Within this context a behavioural approach is key. We discuss when facilitators should consider model-based interventions amid further implications for disaster communication and emergency management. We model the behaviour of individual people by deriving optimal contrarian strategies. We formulate a Bayesian algorithm which enables the optimal evacuation to be conducted sequentially under worsening conditions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1014-1023
Number of pages10
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Volume249
Issue number3
Early online date23 May 2015
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 Mar 2016

Keywords

  • Behavioural OR
  • OR in disaster relief
  • Decision analysis
  • Humanitarian logistics
  • Modelling

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