Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prediction of short-term survival probability is important in the selection and allocation of patients for liver transplantation, and the Mayo End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has been used in these contexts. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a model for estimation of short-term prognosis of patients selected for elective liver transplantation in the United Kingdom.
METHODS: A modeling dataset was based on 1103 adult patients registered for a first elective liver transplant in the United Kingdom between April 1, 2003, and March 31, 2006, and a validation dataset based on 452 patients registered between April 1, 2006, and March 31, 2007. The final model (United Kingdom End-Stage Liver Disease) included international normalized ratio, serum creatinine, bilirubin, and sodium.
RESULTS: The model, based on the modeling dataset, accurately predicted mortality on the transplant list in the validation dataset and proved to be a better predictor than MELD or MELD-Na. The United Kingdom End-Stage Liver Disease score was not associated with overall posttransplant survival but was associated with both the duration of intensive care unit stay and overall initial hospital stay.
CONCLUSION: This model, developed specifically for patients awaiting liver transplantation, provides a useful tool for the selection of patients for liver transplantation and the allocation of donor livers.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 469-76 |
Number of pages | 8 |
Journal | Transplantation |
Volume | 92 |
Issue number | 4 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 27 Aug 2011 |
Keywords
- Adolescent
- Adult
- Aged
- Bilirubin
- Creatinine
- Databases, Factual
- End Stage Liver Disease
- Female
- Great Britain
- Humans
- International Normalized Ratio
- Liver Transplantation
- Male
- Middle Aged
- Models, Biological
- Models, Statistical
- Patient Selection
- Risk Factors
- Sodium
- Survival Analysis
- Waiting Lists
- Young Adult