Do academically selective school systems strengthen the link between students’ family backgrounds and the likelihood of higher education participation?

Proponents of academic selection argue that academic selection helps children from disadvantaged backgrounds have better lifelong outcomes. However, the evidence needs to be clarified since selections by performance could be a proxy for selection by socioeconomic class. Based on the unique situation in England, where both selective and non-selective systems coexist, we evaluate whether students from selective schools are more likely to continue higher education than those in non-selective schools and whether the link between students’ family backgrounds and their likelihood of higher education participation is stronger under a selective system. The results show that attending selective schools is associated with some post-18 advantages for pupils who stayed until the end of Key Stage 5, but brings disadvantages for those who left at earlier stages, even if we look at the upper bound of the selective school effect. Meanwhile, the link between students’ family backgrounds and future opportunities is consistently stronger under the selective system.