Continuities and changes in electoral authoritarianism: evidence from Ethiopia

This article analyzes how autocratic parties sustain and adjust electoral
manipulative tactics to maintain electoral dominance in multi-level elections.
It examines continuities and changes in electoral authoritarianism in Ethiopia
by comparing elections held under the EPRDF and Prosperity Party (PP). The
2021 elections, marred by the detention of main opposition leaders, war and
opposition boycotts, resulted in a dominant victory for the incumbent (PP),
showing continuity of electoral dominance. Analysis of election data since
1995 shows that elections under PP were more competitive than the last two
elections under the EPRDF in terms of opposition votes and seat share.
Further, the analysis indicates regional asymmetry in electoral competition
and opposition success, which is explained by asymmetric authoritarianism,
challenges in ethnically diverse states.
ethnonationalism, and regional political dynamics. Despite this, the
incumbent garnered public support through targeted rhetoric, addressing
regional demands, and reframing historical narratives. These dynamics have
implications for Ethiopia’s future and state-society relations. Insights from
Ethiopia have implications for multi-ethnic federations facing challenges of
democratization while highlighting the empirical need for a nuanced
understanding of region-specific contexts to understand democratization