Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge in semi-arid Uganda and the role of groundwater in livelihood adaptation and peacebuilding

Simulations of groundwater recharge in northeastern Uganda reproduce observed groundwater level fluctuations and provide estimates of recharge ranging from 140 mm-year^-1 in Teso to 30 mm-year^-1 in Karamoja. Simulations and available data strongly suggest that recharge occurs predominantly through indirect or localised mechanisms. If so, the impacts of higher air temperatures as a result of climate change may be more than offset by the projected increases in precipitation leading to a net increase in the available groundwater resources. Adaptive strategies to climate change in northeastern Uganda will likely depend on groundwater use if current environmental and socio-political trends continue. Further research is essential to confirm the mechanisms of recharge in Thèse regions and sustainability of development activities relying upon groundwater. Given the role of natural resources within the current conflict dynamics, groundwater science may have a significant role to play in peacebuilding within this region for years to come.