Bring digital twins back to Earth

Andrea Saltelli*, Gerd Gigerenzer, Mike Hulme, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, Lieke A. Melsen, Glen P. Peters, Roger Pielke, Simon Robertson, Andy Stirling, Massimo Tavoni, Arnald Puy

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

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Abstract

We reflect on the development of digital twins of the Earth, which we associate with a reductionist view of nature as a machine. The projects of digital twins deviate from contemporary scientific paradigms in the treatment of complexity and uncertainty, and does not engage with critical and interpretative social sciences. We contest the utility of digital twins for addressing climate change issues and discuss societal risks associated with the concept, including the twins' potential to reinforce economicism and governance by numbers, emphasizing concerns about democratic accountability. We propose a more balanced alternative, advocating for independent institutions to develop diverse models, prioritize communication with simple heuristic‐based models, collect comprehensive data from various sources, including traditional knowledge, and shift focus away from physics‐centered variables to inform climate action. We argue that the advancement of digital twins should hinge on stringent controls, favoring a nuanced, interdisciplinary, and democratic approach that prioritizes societal well‐being over blind pursuit of computational sophistication.

This article is categorized under:

Climate Models and Modeling > Earth System Models
Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models
Climate, History, Society, Culture > Disciplinary Perspectives
Original languageEnglish
JournalWiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
Early online date26 Aug 2024
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 26 Aug 2024

Keywords

  • digital twins of the Earth system
  • machine learning
  • mathematical modeling
  • ethics of quantification
  • sociology of quantification

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