Bayesian nonparametric inference for heterogeneously mixing infectious disease models

Infectious disease transmissionmodels require assumptions about how the pathogen spreads between individuals. These assumptions may be somewhat arbitrary, particularly when it comes to describing how transmission varies between individuals of different types or in different locations, and may in turn lead to incorrect conclusions or policy decisions. We develop a general Bayesian nonparametric framework for transmission modeling that removes the need to make such specific assumptions with regard to the infection process. We use multioutput Gaussian process prior distributions to model different infection rates in populations containing multiple types of individuals. Further challenges arise because the transmission process itself is unobserved, and large outbreaks can be computationally demanding to analyze. We address these issues by data augmentation and a suitable efficient approximationmethod. Simulation studies using synthetic data demonstrate that our framework gives accurate results. We analyze an outbreak of foot and mouth disease in the United Kingdom, quantifying the spatial transmission mechanism between farms with different combinations of livestock.