Baseline Insulin Secretion Determines Response to Abatacept in Stage 1 Type 1 Diabetes

Abatacept, a cytotoxic T lymphocyte–associated protein 4 immunoglobulin that inhibits T-cell costimulation, was evaluated for 12 months in stage 1 type 1 diabetes (T1D) to delay disease progression. Despite modest preservation of area under the curve C-peptide at 12 months, the primary end point was not met. We adopted the oral minimal model (OMM) to assess β-cell function over 48 months and explored how baseline insulin secretion (ϕ_total) modified treatment response. Using the OMM, ϕ_total was computed from oral glucose tolerance tests conducted at baseline and every 6 months. Participants were stratified into high- and low-secretor groups depending on baseline ϕ_total ≥33rd or <33rd centile, respectively. A sensitivity analysis was performed to validate threshold choice. Among 203 participants (abatacept n = 96; 107 placebo n = 107), 39% receiving abatacept and 47% receiving placebo experienced progression to stage 2 or 3 within 96 months. High secretors receiving abatacept gained 15.8 progression-free months (95% CI 4.85, 26.68; P = 0.005) and had a 54% lower hazard of progression versus those receiving placebo (hazard ratio [HR] 0.46; 95% CI 0.25, 0.84; P = 0.012). Treatment effect differed significantly by secretor status (interaction HR 2.92; 95% CI 1.23, 6.96; P = 0.015). A subgroup of responders to 12 months of abatacept was identified by ϕ_total, providing the first evidence that an immune intervention in stage 1 T1D may delay disease progression.