Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

Cynthia Rosenzweig, Joshua Elliott, Delphine Deryng, Alex Ruane, Christoph Müller, Almut Arneth, Kenneth Boote, Christian Folberth, Michael Glotter, Nikolay Khabarov, Kathleen Neumann, Franziska Piontek, Thomas Pugh, Erwin Schmid, Elke Stehfest, Hong Yang, James Jones

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1027 Citations (Scopus)


Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3268-3273
Number of pages6
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Issue number9
Early online date16 Dec 2013
Publication statusPublished - 4 Mar 2014


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