Analogues for the Railway Network of Great Britain

In recent years, extreme weather events have caused substantial disruption to Great Britain's (GB’s) railway infrastructure. In coming decades this vulnerability is unlikely to subside as the effects of climate change become more intense. Railway stakeholders in GB are strongly engaged with understanding climate change impacts on the railway system and how the industry could adapt to these impacts. Since 2010, Network Rail and RSSB have supported research into these topics under the “Tomorrow’s Railway and Climate Change Adaptation” programme. Under this programme, an analogue study was performed to determine whether lessons could be learned from other countries’ weather management. Two types of analogue were used to identify suitable locations. First, climate data from twenty models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to identify regions with similar present-day climate to that projected for GB in the future. The analogue locations were found to be largely insensitive to the climate indicators and the methods used to compare climate at different locations. Next, railway networks in many countries were studied to find those with similar physical and operational characteristics to the GB network. Those regions with both climate and railway analogues are France, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Denmark. As part of a wider aim to support the GB railway network’s weather resilience and climate change adaptation (WR/CCA) activities, focused stakeholder engagement has been undertaken with representatives of most of these countries’ railways. This targeted approach is complementary to a broader collation of existing WR/CCA measures used globally.