Adaptive learning and labor market dynamics

The standard search and matching model with rational expectations is well known to be unable to generate amplification in unemployment and vacancies. We document a new feature that cannot be replicated: properties of wage forecasts published by institutions in the near term. A parsimonious model with adaptive learning can provide a solution to both of these problems. Firms choose vacancies by forecasting wages using simple autoregressive models; they have greater incentive to post vacancies at the time of a positive productivity shock because of overoptimism about the discounted value of expected profits.