Actuarial assessment of risk for reoffense among adult sex offenders - Evaluating the predictive accuracy of the Static-2002 and five other instruments

CM Langton, HE Barbaree, MC Seto, EJ Peacock, Leigh Harkins, KT Hansen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

92 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study extended previous research comparing a set of widely employed actuarial risk assessment schemes as well as a new instrument, the Static-2002, in a sample of 468 sex offenders followed for an average of 5.9 years. All of the risk assessment instruments (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offense Recidivism [RRASOR], Static-99, Static-2002, and Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised [MnSOST-R]) were found to predict the recidivism outcomes for which they were designed. Although significant, indices of accuracy were generally lower than those reported by the developers of these instruments, even under conditions that have been shown to optimize predictive performance. For serious recidivism, the predictive accuracy of the Static-2002 and SORAG was significantly superior to that of the RRASOR, and the SORAG was significantly superior to the MnSOST-R as well. There were no significant differences among instruments in accuracy of predicting sexual recidivism.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)37-59
Number of pages23
JournalCriminal Justice and Behavior
Volume34
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2007

Keywords

  • Static-2002
  • VRAG
  • actuarial risk assessment
  • Static-99
  • sex offenders
  • recidivism prediction
  • SORAG
  • RRASOR
  • MnSOST-R

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