A wastewater-based risk index for SARS-CoV-2 infections among three cities on the Canadian Prairie

Mohsen Asadi; Femi F. Oloye; Yuwei Xie; Jenna Cantin; Jonathan K. Challis; Kerry N. McPhedran; Warsame Yusuf; David Champredon; Pu Xia; Chantel De Lange; Seba El-Baroudy; Mark R. Servos; Paul D. Jones; John P. Giesy; Markus Brinkmann

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162800

A wastewater-based risk index for SARS-CoV-2 infections among three cities on the Canadian Prairie

Mohsen Asadi^*
, Femi F. Oloye^*
, Yuwei Xie
, Jenna Cantin
, Jonathan K. Challis
, Kerry N. McPhedran
, Warsame Yusuf
, David Champredon
, Pu Xia
, Chantel De Lange
, Seba El-Baroudy
, Mark R. Servos
, Paul D. Jones
, John P. Giesy^*
, Markus Brinkmann^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Biosciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Wastewater surveillance (WWS) is useful to better understand the spreading of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in communities, which can help design and implement suitable mitigation measures. The main objective of this study was to develop the Wastewater Viral Load Risk Index (WWVLRI) for three Saskatchewan cities to offer a simple metric to interpret WWS. The index was developed by considering relationships between reproduction number, clinical data, daily per capita concentrations of virus particles in wastewater, and weekly viral load change rate. Trends of daily per capita concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater for Saskatoon, Prince Albert, and North Battleford were similar during the pandemic, suggesting that per capita viral load can be useful to quantitatively compare wastewater signals among cities and develop an effective and comprehensible WWVLRI. The effective reproduction number (R_t) and the daily per capita efficiency adjusted viral load thresholds of 85 × 10⁶ and 200 × 10⁶ N2 gene counts (gc)/population day (pd) were determined. These values with rates of change were used to categorize the potential for COVID-19 outbreaks and subsequent declines. The weekly average was considered ‘low risk’ when the per capita viral load was 85 × 10⁶ N2 gc/pd. A ‘medium risk’ occurs when the per capita copies were between 85 × 10⁶ and 200 × 10⁶ N2 gc/pd. with a rate of change <100 %. The start of an outbreak is indicated by a ‘medium-high’ risk classification when the week-over-week rate of change was >100 %, and the absolute magnitude of concentrations of viral particles was >85 × 10⁶ N2 gc/pd. Lastly, a ‘high risk’ occurs when the viral load exceeds 200 × 10⁶ N2 gc/pd. This methodology provides a valuable resource for decision-makers and health authorities, specifically given the limitation of COVID-19 surveillance based on clinical data.

Original language	English
Article number	162800
Number of pages	9
Journal	Science of the Total Environment
Volume	876
Early online date	11 Mar 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162800
Publication status	Published - 10 Jun 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study is part of the project titled “Next generation solutions to ensure healthy water resources for future generations,” funded by the Global Water Futures program, Canada First Research Excellence Fund (#419205; Additional information is available at www.globalwaterfutures.ca) and the Public Health Agency of Canada. The authors acknowledge the support of the Saskatoon, North Battleford and Prince Albert Wastewater Treatment Plants. The research was supported by a Discovery Grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Project # 326415-07). The authors wish to acknowledge the support of an instrumentation grant from the Canada Foundation for Innovation. Prof. Giesy was supported by the Canada Research Chairs Program of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and a distinguished visiting professorship of Environmental Sciences from Baylor University in Waco, Texas, USA.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023

Keywords

Clinical data
COVID-19 outbreak
Effective reproduction number
Epidemiology
Risk index
Wastewater surveillance

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Environmental Engineering
Environmental Chemistry
Waste Management and Disposal
Pollution

Access to Document

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162800

Cite this

Asadi, M., Oloye, F. F., Xie, Y., Cantin, J., Challis, J. K., McPhedran, K. N., Yusuf, W., Champredon, D., Xia, P., De Lange, C., El-Baroudy, S., Servos, M. R., Jones, P. D., Giesy, J. P., & Brinkmann, M. (2023). A wastewater-based risk index for SARS-CoV-2 infections among three cities on the Canadian Prairie. Science of the Total Environment, 876, Article 162800. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162800

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abstract = "Wastewater surveillance (WWS) is useful to better understand the spreading of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in communities, which can help design and implement suitable mitigation measures. The main objective of this study was to develop the Wastewater Viral Load Risk Index (WWVLRI) for three Saskatchewan cities to offer a simple metric to interpret WWS. The index was developed by considering relationships between reproduction number, clinical data, daily per capita concentrations of virus particles in wastewater, and weekly viral load change rate. Trends of daily per capita concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater for Saskatoon, Prince Albert, and North Battleford were similar during the pandemic, suggesting that per capita viral load can be useful to quantitatively compare wastewater signals among cities and develop an effective and comprehensible WWVLRI. The effective reproduction number (Rt) and the daily per capita efficiency adjusted viral load thresholds of 85 × 106 and 200 × 106 N2 gene counts (gc)/population day (pd) were determined. These values with rates of change were used to categorize the potential for COVID-19 outbreaks and subsequent declines. The weekly average was considered {\textquoteleft}low risk{\textquoteright} when the per capita viral load was 85 × 106 N2 gc/pd. A {\textquoteleft}medium risk{\textquoteright} occurs when the per capita copies were between 85 × 106 and 200 × 106 N2 gc/pd. with a rate of change <100 \%. The start of an outbreak is indicated by a {\textquoteleft}medium-high{\textquoteright} risk classification when the week-over-week rate of change was >100 \%, and the absolute magnitude of concentrations of viral particles was >85 × 106 N2 gc/pd. Lastly, a {\textquoteleft}high risk{\textquoteright} occurs when the viral load exceeds 200 × 106 N2 gc/pd. This methodology provides a valuable resource for decision-makers and health authorities, specifically given the limitation of COVID-19 surveillance based on clinical data.",

keywords = "Clinical data, COVID-19 outbreak, Effective reproduction number, Epidemiology, Risk index, Wastewater surveillance",

author = "Mohsen Asadi and Oloye, \{Femi F.\} and Yuwei Xie and Jenna Cantin and Challis, \{Jonathan K.\} and McPhedran, \{Kerry N.\} and Warsame Yusuf and David Champredon and Pu Xia and \{De Lange\}, Chantel and Seba El-Baroudy and Servos, \{Mark R.\} and Jones, \{Paul D.\} and Giesy, \{John P.\} and Markus Brinkmann",

note = "Funding Information: This study is part of the project titled “Next generation solutions to ensure healthy water resources for future generations,” funded by the Global Water Futures program, Canada First Research Excellence Fund (\#419205; Additional information is available at www.globalwaterfutures.ca) and the Public Health Agency of Canada. The authors acknowledge the support of the Saskatoon, North Battleford and Prince Albert Wastewater Treatment Plants. The research was supported by a Discovery Grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Project \# 326415-07). The authors wish to acknowledge the support of an instrumentation grant from the Canada Foundation for Innovation. Prof. Giesy was supported by the Canada Research Chairs Program of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and a distinguished visiting professorship of Environmental Sciences from Baylor University in Waco, Texas, USA. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023",

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Asadi, M, Oloye, FF, Xie, Y, Cantin, J, Challis, JK, McPhedran, KN, Yusuf, W, Champredon, D, Xia, P, De Lange, C, El-Baroudy, S, Servos, MR, Jones, PD, Giesy, JP & Brinkmann, M 2023, 'A wastewater-based risk index for SARS-CoV-2 infections among three cities on the Canadian Prairie', Science of the Total Environment, vol. 876, 162800. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162800

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AU - Xie, Yuwei

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AU - Challis, Jonathan K.

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AU - El-Baroudy, Seba

AU - Servos, Mark R.

AU - Jones, Paul D.

AU - Giesy, John P.

AU - Brinkmann, Markus

N1 - Funding Information: This study is part of the project titled “Next generation solutions to ensure healthy water resources for future generations,” funded by the Global Water Futures program, Canada First Research Excellence Fund (#419205; Additional information is available at www.globalwaterfutures.ca) and the Public Health Agency of Canada. The authors acknowledge the support of the Saskatoon, North Battleford and Prince Albert Wastewater Treatment Plants. The research was supported by a Discovery Grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Project # 326415-07). The authors wish to acknowledge the support of an instrumentation grant from the Canada Foundation for Innovation. Prof. Giesy was supported by the Canada Research Chairs Program of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and a distinguished visiting professorship of Environmental Sciences from Baylor University in Waco, Texas, USA. Publisher Copyright: © 2023

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N2 - Wastewater surveillance (WWS) is useful to better understand the spreading of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in communities, which can help design and implement suitable mitigation measures. The main objective of this study was to develop the Wastewater Viral Load Risk Index (WWVLRI) for three Saskatchewan cities to offer a simple metric to interpret WWS. The index was developed by considering relationships between reproduction number, clinical data, daily per capita concentrations of virus particles in wastewater, and weekly viral load change rate. Trends of daily per capita concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater for Saskatoon, Prince Albert, and North Battleford were similar during the pandemic, suggesting that per capita viral load can be useful to quantitatively compare wastewater signals among cities and develop an effective and comprehensible WWVLRI. The effective reproduction number (Rt) and the daily per capita efficiency adjusted viral load thresholds of 85 × 106 and 200 × 106 N2 gene counts (gc)/population day (pd) were determined. These values with rates of change were used to categorize the potential for COVID-19 outbreaks and subsequent declines. The weekly average was considered ‘low risk’ when the per capita viral load was 85 × 106 N2 gc/pd. A ‘medium risk’ occurs when the per capita copies were between 85 × 106 and 200 × 106 N2 gc/pd. with a rate of change <100 %. The start of an outbreak is indicated by a ‘medium-high’ risk classification when the week-over-week rate of change was >100 %, and the absolute magnitude of concentrations of viral particles was >85 × 106 N2 gc/pd. Lastly, a ‘high risk’ occurs when the viral load exceeds 200 × 106 N2 gc/pd. This methodology provides a valuable resource for decision-makers and health authorities, specifically given the limitation of COVID-19 surveillance based on clinical data.

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ER -

A wastewater-based risk index for SARS-CoV-2 infections among three cities on the Canadian Prairie

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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Cite this