A preoperative predictive score of pancreatic fistula following pancreatoduodenectomy

Keith J Roberts, James Hodson, Homoyoon Mehrzad, Ravi Marudanayagam, Robert P Sutcliffe, Paolo Muiesan, John Isaac, Simon R Bramhall, Darius F Mirza

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

74 Citations (Scopus)
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BACKGROUND: Various factors are related to the occurrence of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). Some of the strongest are identified intra- or postoperatively, which limits their utility in predicting this complication. The preoperative prediction of POPF permits an individualized approach to patient consent and selection, and may influence postoperative management. This study sought to develop and test a score to predict POPF.

METHODS: A post hoc analysis of a prospectively maintained database was conducted. Consecutive patients were randomly selected to modelling and validation sets at a ratio of 2 :1, respectively. Patient data, preoperative blood tests and physical characteristics of the gland (assessed from preoperative computed tomography images) were subjected to univariate and multivariate analysis in the modelling set of patients. A score predictive of POPF was designed and tested in the validation set.

RESULTS: Postoperative pancreatic fistula occurred in 77 of 325 (23.7%) patients. The occurrence of POPF was associated with 12 factors. On multivariate analysis, body mass index and pancreatic duct width were independently associated with POPF. A risk score to predict POPF was designed (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.832, 95% confidence interval 0.768-0.897; P < 0.001) and successfully tested upon the validation set.

CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative assessment of a patient's risk for POPF is possible using simple measurements. The present risk score is a valid tool with which to predict POPF in patients undergoing PD.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)620-628
Number of pages9
JournalHPB : the official journal of the International Hepato Pancreato Biliary Association
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2014


  • Aged
  • Area Under Curve
  • Biomarkers
  • Decision Support Techniques
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Observer Variation
  • Pancreatic Fistula
  • Pancreaticoduodenectomy
  • Patient Selection
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Preoperative Care
  • ROC Curve
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Tomography, X-Ray Computed
  • Treatment Outcome


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