A high-frequency analysis of weather and crime in Jamaica

Although the crime-weather relationship has been studied extensively, the use of high-frequency hourly crime data with a measure of heat that takes account of the combined effect of temperature and relative humidity is as of yet unexplored. Using over 3.2 million hourly observations from 2000 to 2020 across 19 geographical divisions in Jamaica, we establish the effect of heat on crime. The results show that crime increases up to six hours after heat exposure, where the effect is magnified under extreme heat conditions. Investigating different crime types, we find that murder and shooting are more responsive to heat, rape, and break-ins respond only during daytime, whereas aggravated assaults were affected only at nights. These findings highlight the need to understand the complex risks of different types of crimes in order to allocate police resources efficiently.