A cost-utility analysis comparing CT surveillance, PET-CT surveillance, and planned postradiation neck dissection for advanced nodal HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer

BACKGROUND: The cost utility of image-guided surveillance using computed tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography (PET)-CT to planned postradiation neck dissection (PRND) was compared for the management of advanced nodal human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer following chemoradiation.

METHODS: A universal payer perspective was adopted. A Markov model was designed to simulate four treatment approaches with 3-month cycles over a lifetime horizon: 1) CT surveillance, 2) standard PET-CT surveillance, 3) a novel PET-CT approach with repeat PET at 6 months postchemoradiation for equivocal responders, and 4) PRND. Parameters including probabilities of CT nodal progression/resolution, PET avidity, recurrence, and survival were obtained from the literature. Costs were reported in 2019 Canadian dollars and utilities were expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate model uncertainty.

RESULTS: PET-CT surveillance dominated CT surveillance and PRND in the base case scenario, and the novel PET-CT approach was the most cost-effective strategy across a wide range of variables tested in one-way sensitivity analysis. On probabilistic sensitivity analysis, novel PET-CT surveillance was the most cost-effective strategy in 78.1% of model iterations at a willingness-to-pay of $50,000/QALYs. Novel PET-CT surveillance resulted in a 49% lower rate of neck dissection compared with traditional PET-CT, and yielded an incremental benefit of 0.14 QALYs with average cost savings of $1309.

CONCLUSIONS: Image-guided surveillance including PET-CT and CT are more cost effective than PRND. The novel PET-CT approach with repeat PET for equivocal responders was the dominant strategy and yielded both higher benefit and lower costs compared with standard PET-CT surveillance.